Trust in Others - Our Political Choice
June in Europe was memorable not only for the World Cup but also for the European Parliament elections. At the end of May, we launched a pilot bot on Telegram to assess the degree of agreement with statements from the programs of major German parties. We want to share the results and a brief analysis with you.

Survey period: May 30 to June 6
Number of respondents: 536 people
Age: from 18 to 81 years. 55% women, 45% men
Languages: English and Russian
Statements from party programs: CDU, FDP, AfD, BSW, SPD, Die Linke, Grüne
Majority agreed "completely" or "somewhat" on the following issues:
  • The EU should continue to consider nuclear energy as a sustainable energy source 68.3% (26.6% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • Ukraine should become an EU member 51.7% (34.1% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • The EU should recommend member states to allow registration of a gender identity other than "female" and "male" in passports 56.4% (27.3% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • More foreign policy decisions in the EU should be made by majority vote rather than unanimously 67% (25.7% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • Political parties should retain the freedom to choose the gender composition of their lists for the European Parliament elections 58.6% (35.3% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • The EU should finance more weapons for Ukraine 66.1% (18.3% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
  • Internal combustion engine (ICE) cars should continue to be registered in the EU after 2035 52.2% (34.5% "completely against" or "somewhat against")
Majority disagreed "completely" or "somewhat" on the following issues:
  • Social media operators should have the freedom to independently decide how to combat misinformation on their platforms 52.6% (37% "completely for" or "somewhat for")
  • EU enlargement should be confirmed by referendums in all member states 55.7% (34.9% "completely for" or "somewhat for")
  • Permanent border controls between EU member states should be reinstated 94.8% (8.5% "completely for" or "somewhat for")
  • EU sanctions against Russia should be lifted 75.5% (12.2% "completely for" or "somewhat for")
Thus, the greatest consensus was found regarding the borders of the European Union, which people do not want to reinstate, and the EU sanctions against Russia, which people want to keep. Opinions varied more on other issues.
In addition to the degree of agreement with the statements from the party programs, respondents also answered a few questions about themselves. The results of our study generally align with known data on political attitudes and preferences, namely:
  • Conservatism increases with age.
  • Young people show greater political activity and interest, often having liberal or left-wing political views.
  • Men are more conservative and tend to hold right-wing political views more often than women.
These trends are reflected in voters' political preferences. Men are more likely to agree with the statements from the CDU, FDP, and AfD programs, while women are more likely to support the SPD and Die Linke. High interest in politics is associated with support for the Grüne, CDU, FDP, and SPD, while low interest is associated with support for the AfD and BSW. Liberal and left-wing views are associated with support for the Grüne, FDP, and SPD, while conservative and right-wing views are associated with support for the AfD and BSW.
What new insights can we add to this familiar picture?
In the "dry" statement of statistical results, it is easy to lose the human factor, which undoubtedly determines people's political preferences. As such a factor, we considered the level of trust in others (which can range from complete distrust to full acceptance of others as safe and benevolent partners). Decreased trust in others can lead to increased social fragmentation and a perception of the world as a dangerous place. Scientific research shows that belief in a dangerous world consistently leads to support for authoritarianism as a way to protect against dangers and preserve values and traditions.

The results of a mathematical model considering the contribution and interaction of various variables (level of trust in people, liberal-conservative, left-right political preferences, age and gender of respondents, and their interest in politics) showed that low trust in others significantly increases support for right-wing and conservative political views, which in turn increases support for political parties such as the AfD and BSW. This effect is observed only among men, who may feel more threatened by society, especially related to various liberal initiatives aimed, for example, at protecting women's rights. High trust, on the other hand, is associated with an increase in left-wing attitudes and support for the FDP and SPD among both men and women.

What do these results tell us? It seems that the rise of right-wing and conservative parties is linked to a decrease in trust in others. Many people now need support and the restoration of faith in humanity to shift from a desire to "protect" from a dangerous world to a willingness to be open to society, new ideas, and initiatives. The task of modern politicians is to understand when trust in others was lost and what we can do to restore it. These observations open new horizons for understanding how social and political factors interact, influencing our lives and society as a whole.

Thanks for helping with the project:
Creation of the bot: Friday team
Help in gathering respondents: Alex Yusupov
Data analysis: Elena Agadullina

We will soon organize meetings to discuss issues on which our participants' opinions were most divided. If you are interested in joining, please fill out the participation form (if you answered the bot's questions and marked that you want to participate in the discussions, you do not need to fill out the form).

We also hope to develop our bot pilot into a full survey and conduct more extensive research and data analysis. If you are interested in joining the project, please write to us: lab.wir.de@gmail.com
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